Articles
2024. "Political Trust and Government Performance in the Time of COVID-19." World Development, 176 (106499) (with Chenyuan Ji and Junyan Jiang).
Abstract: Governments around the world have exhibited markedly different levels of effectiveness in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and these variations have not been adequately explained by conventional correlates of good governance. This paper advances a co-production perspective, arguing that citizens’ predisposition to support and comply with government policies has played a crucial role in shaping countries’ pandemic performance. Analyzing a cross-country dataset that combines COVID-related cases and deaths with a new measure of political trust constructed from multiple international surveys, we show that the numbers of casualties from the pandemic are significantly lower in societies where citizens have greater trust in their governments. This relationship continues to hold even when we focus only on wealthy, democratic countries where the data quality is more reliable. Additional analyses suggest that higher political trust contributes to both greater compliance with mitigation measures by citizens and more decisive responses by government. These findings underscore the importance of citizen—government collaboration for effective governance and the perils of declining political trust in advanced democracies.
2024. "Political Trust and Government Performance in the Time of COVID-19." World Development, 176 (106499) (with Chenyuan Ji and Junyan Jiang).
Abstract: Governments around the world have exhibited markedly different levels of effectiveness in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and these variations have not been adequately explained by conventional correlates of good governance. This paper advances a co-production perspective, arguing that citizens’ predisposition to support and comply with government policies has played a crucial role in shaping countries’ pandemic performance. Analyzing a cross-country dataset that combines COVID-related cases and deaths with a new measure of political trust constructed from multiple international surveys, we show that the numbers of casualties from the pandemic are significantly lower in societies where citizens have greater trust in their governments. This relationship continues to hold even when we focus only on wealthy, democratic countries where the data quality is more reliable. Additional analyses suggest that higher political trust contributes to both greater compliance with mitigation measures by citizens and more decisive responses by government. These findings underscore the importance of citizen—government collaboration for effective governance and the perils of declining political trust in advanced democracies.
Working Papers
"Partisan Responses to Economic Shocks: Inflation Crises and the Paradox of Trade Liberalization." Under Review.
Abstract: The price benefits of trade liberalization make it an ideal response to inflation, but countries differ in their trade policy adjustments after an inflation crisis. This paper argues that the dual features of inflation crises---price increases and economic hardship---complicate perceptions of appropriate responses, with the incumbent's ideology shaping liberalization decisions. Using a global dataset on inflation crises and trade reforms, I find that inflation shocks are often followed by more not less restrictions on trade, and inflation-induced liberalization is more likely to occur under a right-wing administration. Combining crisis data with global surveys and party manifestos, I further demonstrate that these partisan differences stem from the pro-trade shift of right-leaning individuals and the electoral advantages gained by right-wing parties. This study offers new insights into the motivations for trade liberalization and the political impacts of economic crises.
"Aversion to What?: Early-Life Economic Experiences and Public Reactions to Inflation."
Abstract: Public aversion to price increases is essential to macroeconomic policymaking and conventionally seen as a mere reflection of high inflation memories. This study refines this notion by demonstrating the nonlinear impacts of early inflation experiences, which do not always lead to a strong aversion to price rises in one's later life. Analyzing European data from the past two decades, I find that while high inflation during early adulthood consistently predicts a strong aversion to price rises, the link weakens under conditions of moderate inflation, particularly when accompanied by a robust labor market. Further analyses suggest that individuals' perceptions of inflation's economic consequences, learned from their early experiences, play a crucial role in forming their preferences for price stability. This research highlights the complex interplay between past economic conditions and contemporary public attitudes toward inflation, providing a framework for understanding cross-country variations in inflation aversion.
"Prosperity and Openness: Early Globalization Experiences and Mass Preferences for Free Trade." Under Review.
Abstract: Individuals from different generations have demonstrated distinct attitudes toward international trade, and conventional factors used to predict trade policy preferences have not fully explained these differences. Focusing on individuals' past experiences, this study argues that their early exposure to economic growth and trade openness has lasting effects on trade preferences. Employing cross-national datasets that cover the last three decades and exploring the exogenous shock caused by the Asian Financial Crisis, I demonstrate that increasing exposure to economic upswings in an open economy leads to significantly stronger later-life trade support. Conversely, experiencing economic downturns with greater openness could result in heightened opposition to international trade. Further examination indicates early globalization experiences contribute to sustained trade support by cultivating pro-trade perceptions and enhancing individuals' material well-being. This paper documents the crucial impacts of personal experiences on political attitudes and provides a novel perspective for explaining the formation of trade preferences.
"Partisan Responses to Economic Shocks: Inflation Crises and the Paradox of Trade Liberalization." Under Review.
Abstract: The price benefits of trade liberalization make it an ideal response to inflation, but countries differ in their trade policy adjustments after an inflation crisis. This paper argues that the dual features of inflation crises---price increases and economic hardship---complicate perceptions of appropriate responses, with the incumbent's ideology shaping liberalization decisions. Using a global dataset on inflation crises and trade reforms, I find that inflation shocks are often followed by more not less restrictions on trade, and inflation-induced liberalization is more likely to occur under a right-wing administration. Combining crisis data with global surveys and party manifestos, I further demonstrate that these partisan differences stem from the pro-trade shift of right-leaning individuals and the electoral advantages gained by right-wing parties. This study offers new insights into the motivations for trade liberalization and the political impacts of economic crises.
"Aversion to What?: Early-Life Economic Experiences and Public Reactions to Inflation."
Abstract: Public aversion to price increases is essential to macroeconomic policymaking and conventionally seen as a mere reflection of high inflation memories. This study refines this notion by demonstrating the nonlinear impacts of early inflation experiences, which do not always lead to a strong aversion to price rises in one's later life. Analyzing European data from the past two decades, I find that while high inflation during early adulthood consistently predicts a strong aversion to price rises, the link weakens under conditions of moderate inflation, particularly when accompanied by a robust labor market. Further analyses suggest that individuals' perceptions of inflation's economic consequences, learned from their early experiences, play a crucial role in forming their preferences for price stability. This research highlights the complex interplay between past economic conditions and contemporary public attitudes toward inflation, providing a framework for understanding cross-country variations in inflation aversion.
"Prosperity and Openness: Early Globalization Experiences and Mass Preferences for Free Trade." Under Review.
Abstract: Individuals from different generations have demonstrated distinct attitudes toward international trade, and conventional factors used to predict trade policy preferences have not fully explained these differences. Focusing on individuals' past experiences, this study argues that their early exposure to economic growth and trade openness has lasting effects on trade preferences. Employing cross-national datasets that cover the last three decades and exploring the exogenous shock caused by the Asian Financial Crisis, I demonstrate that increasing exposure to economic upswings in an open economy leads to significantly stronger later-life trade support. Conversely, experiencing economic downturns with greater openness could result in heightened opposition to international trade. Further examination indicates early globalization experiences contribute to sustained trade support by cultivating pro-trade perceptions and enhancing individuals' material well-being. This paper documents the crucial impacts of personal experiences on political attitudes and provides a novel perspective for explaining the formation of trade preferences.
Selected Works in Progress
Experiences of Economic Crises and Attitudes toward Government Intervention.
Preferences over Trade Protectionism (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
U.S.-China Competition and Mass Preferences for Technological Adoption (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
Career Path and Political Preferences (with Jerry Min).
Life Experiences and Attitudes toward Military Alliance (with Allison Carnegie and Elizabeth Saunders).
Experiences of Economic Crises and Attitudes toward Government Intervention.
Preferences over Trade Protectionism (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
U.S.-China Competition and Mass Preferences for Technological Adoption (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
Career Path and Political Preferences (with Jerry Min).
Life Experiences and Attitudes toward Military Alliance (with Allison Carnegie and Elizabeth Saunders).