Articles
2024. "Political Trust and Government Performance in the Time of COVID-19." World Development, 176 (106499) (with Chenyuan Ji and Junyan Jiang).
Abstract: Governments around the world have exhibited markedly different levels of effectiveness in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and these variations have not been adequately explained by conventional correlates of good governance. This paper advances a co-production perspective, arguing that citizens’ predisposition to support and comply with government policies has played a crucial role in shaping countries’ pandemic performance. Analyzing a cross-country dataset that combines COVID-related cases and deaths with a new measure of political trust constructed from multiple international surveys, we show that the numbers of casualties from the pandemic are significantly lower in societies where citizens have greater trust in their governments. This relationship continues to hold even when we focus only on wealthy, democratic countries where the data quality is more reliable. Additional analyses suggest that higher political trust contributes to both greater compliance with mitigation measures by citizens and more decisive responses by government. These findings underscore the importance of citizen—government collaboration for effective governance and the perils of declining political trust in advanced democracies.
2024. "Political Trust and Government Performance in the Time of COVID-19." World Development, 176 (106499) (with Chenyuan Ji and Junyan Jiang).
Abstract: Governments around the world have exhibited markedly different levels of effectiveness in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and these variations have not been adequately explained by conventional correlates of good governance. This paper advances a co-production perspective, arguing that citizens’ predisposition to support and comply with government policies has played a crucial role in shaping countries’ pandemic performance. Analyzing a cross-country dataset that combines COVID-related cases and deaths with a new measure of political trust constructed from multiple international surveys, we show that the numbers of casualties from the pandemic are significantly lower in societies where citizens have greater trust in their governments. This relationship continues to hold even when we focus only on wealthy, democratic countries where the data quality is more reliable. Additional analyses suggest that higher political trust contributes to both greater compliance with mitigation measures by citizens and more decisive responses by government. These findings underscore the importance of citizen—government collaboration for effective governance and the perils of declining political trust in advanced democracies.
Working Papers
"Inflation Crises, Political Ideology, and Trade Policies." Under Review.
Abstract: Trade liberalization can help curb inflation, yet countries differ significantly in adjusting trade policies after inflation crises. This paper argues that the dual pressures of inflation---economic hardship and rising prices---create complex perceptions around policy responses, with the incumbent administration’s ideology affecting final liberalization choices. Analyzing a global dataset of inflation crises and trade policies, I find that inflation crises often lead to increased trade restrictions overall, but inflation-induced trade liberalization is more likely to occur under a right-wing administration. Further analysis using party manifestos and global survey data indicates that inflation shocks prompt right-wing parties and conservative individuals to adopt more pro-trade positions. Additionally, inflation crises can boost right-wing parties' electoral performance, enabling them to advance trade liberalization with greater political leverage. This study offers new insights into the ideological drivers of trade policy and the broader political effects of economic crises.
"Aversion to What?: Early-Life Economic Experiences and Public Reactions to Inflation."
Abstract: Public aversion to price increases is essential to macroeconomic policymaking and conventionally seen as a mere reflection of high inflation memories. This study refines this notion by demonstrating the nonlinear impacts of early inflation experiences, which do not always lead to a strong aversion to price rises in one's later life. Analyzing European data from the past two decades, I find that while high inflation during early adulthood consistently predicts a strong aversion to price rises, the link weakens under conditions of moderate inflation, particularly when accompanied by a robust labor market. Further analyses suggest that individuals' perceptions of inflation's economic consequences, learned from their early experiences, play a crucial role in forming their preferences for price stability. This research highlights the complex interplay between past economic conditions and contemporary public attitudes toward inflation, providing a framework for understanding cross-country variations in inflation aversion.
"Prosperity and Openness: Early Globalization Experiences and Mass Preferences for Free Trade." Under Review.
Abstract: Individuals from different generations have demonstrated distinct attitudes toward international trade, and conventional factors used to predict trade policy preferences have not fully explained these differences. Focusing on individuals' past experiences, this study argues that their early exposure to economic growth and trade openness has lasting effects on trade preferences. Employing cross-national datasets that cover the last three decades and exploring the exogenous shock caused by the Asian Financial Crisis, I demonstrate that increasing exposure to economic upswings in an open economy leads to significantly stronger later-life trade support. Conversely, experiencing economic downturns with greater openness could result in heightened opposition to international trade. Further examination indicates early globalization experiences contribute to sustained trade support by cultivating pro-trade perceptions and enhancing individuals' material well-being. This paper documents the crucial impacts of personal experiences on political attitudes and provides a novel perspective for explaining the formation of trade preferences.
"Inflation Crises, Political Ideology, and Trade Policies." Under Review.
Abstract: Trade liberalization can help curb inflation, yet countries differ significantly in adjusting trade policies after inflation crises. This paper argues that the dual pressures of inflation---economic hardship and rising prices---create complex perceptions around policy responses, with the incumbent administration’s ideology affecting final liberalization choices. Analyzing a global dataset of inflation crises and trade policies, I find that inflation crises often lead to increased trade restrictions overall, but inflation-induced trade liberalization is more likely to occur under a right-wing administration. Further analysis using party manifestos and global survey data indicates that inflation shocks prompt right-wing parties and conservative individuals to adopt more pro-trade positions. Additionally, inflation crises can boost right-wing parties' electoral performance, enabling them to advance trade liberalization with greater political leverage. This study offers new insights into the ideological drivers of trade policy and the broader political effects of economic crises.
"Aversion to What?: Early-Life Economic Experiences and Public Reactions to Inflation."
Abstract: Public aversion to price increases is essential to macroeconomic policymaking and conventionally seen as a mere reflection of high inflation memories. This study refines this notion by demonstrating the nonlinear impacts of early inflation experiences, which do not always lead to a strong aversion to price rises in one's later life. Analyzing European data from the past two decades, I find that while high inflation during early adulthood consistently predicts a strong aversion to price rises, the link weakens under conditions of moderate inflation, particularly when accompanied by a robust labor market. Further analyses suggest that individuals' perceptions of inflation's economic consequences, learned from their early experiences, play a crucial role in forming their preferences for price stability. This research highlights the complex interplay between past economic conditions and contemporary public attitudes toward inflation, providing a framework for understanding cross-country variations in inflation aversion.
"Prosperity and Openness: Early Globalization Experiences and Mass Preferences for Free Trade." Under Review.
Abstract: Individuals from different generations have demonstrated distinct attitudes toward international trade, and conventional factors used to predict trade policy preferences have not fully explained these differences. Focusing on individuals' past experiences, this study argues that their early exposure to economic growth and trade openness has lasting effects on trade preferences. Employing cross-national datasets that cover the last three decades and exploring the exogenous shock caused by the Asian Financial Crisis, I demonstrate that increasing exposure to economic upswings in an open economy leads to significantly stronger later-life trade support. Conversely, experiencing economic downturns with greater openness could result in heightened opposition to international trade. Further examination indicates early globalization experiences contribute to sustained trade support by cultivating pro-trade perceptions and enhancing individuals' material well-being. This paper documents the crucial impacts of personal experiences on political attitudes and provides a novel perspective for explaining the formation of trade preferences.
Selected Works in Progress
Experiences of Economic Crises and Attitudes toward Government Intervention.
Preferences over Trade Protectionist Policies (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
Trade Interdependence and U.S.-China Relations in the Era of Technological Competition (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
Career Path and Political Preferences (with Jerry Min).
Life Experiences and Attitudes toward Military Alliance (with Allison Carnegie and Elizabeth Saunders).
Experiences of Economic Crises and Attitudes toward Government Intervention.
Preferences over Trade Protectionist Policies (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
Trade Interdependence and U.S.-China Relations in the Era of Technological Competition (with Gary Ziwen Zu).
Career Path and Political Preferences (with Jerry Min).
Life Experiences and Attitudes toward Military Alliance (with Allison Carnegie and Elizabeth Saunders).